Although properties are still being sold in Bernal Heights, they appear to be moving slower. This begs the question, is it currently a buyer’s or seller’s market in this area? To obtain a comprehensive answer to this inquiry and other related ones, we sought the expertise of a trustworthy Bernal Heights real estate agent, Michael Minson, from the reputable Level Up Group.
Can you start with your background and your ties to Bernal Heights?
I’ve been a Realtor for over ten years and a Bernal resident for over 15 yrs now – first on the north slope on Esmeralda and now on the Cortland corridor on Anderson. I consider myself a Bernal Heights ambassador and constantly recommend our little hamlet on a hill to anyone who will listen!
What is your take on today’s real estate market?
The pandemic took its toll on San Francisco, and we’ve yet to recover fully. Where most Bay Area regions saw significant gains in 2022, as high as 40% year-over-year growth in the East Bay, SF had a more conservative 9% growth rate. When the tides turned, interest rates tripled, and inflation quadrupled, we saw a rapid slowdown on the exuberance meter; now to find the tables have turned, and we’re seeing more of a Buyer’s market for certain property types in certain areas (downtown condos especially). We started to see a recovery in Q1 2023, but that was short-lived with the announcement of tech layoffs and the banking crisis. The dark clouds of recession are gathering, which casts a foreboding shadow over the real estate market for 2023.
We’ve heard the mass exodus of SF is overinflated; what’s your take?
San Francisco, as a liberal enclave, attracts as many as it repels. We’ve had dozens of clients flee to lower-cost areas like Boise, Austin, and Orlando, only to have them return within a year – I expect that to continue as politics become increasingly extreme in these deep red states. There’s no substitute for the Bay Area – you get what you pay for. We are a major international city – as the economy improves, SF will be back in favor; I have zero doubts.
What makes Bernal Heights a desirable neighborhood for homebuyers?
Bernal continues to be one of SF’s best-kept secrets. What makes Bernal great is timeless, regardless of what’s trending. Our weather, parks, views, commercial districts, quirky and casual vibe, and cultural diversity stand out in competing neighborhoods.
How does the real estate market in Bernal Heights compare to other neighborhoods in San Francisco?
We are remarkably consistent with being right on the median of SF’s overall housing market – as SF does well, so does Bernal, and vice versa.
What should homebuyers expect in terms of pricing in Bernal Heights?
The median price for a house in Bernal is around $1.5M. That’s down about 25% from the pandemic’s peak (Q2 2022), when the median price was just over $2M for the first (and only) time. So buyers should plan to pay between $1k and $1.1k per square foot for a quality home in the neighborhood. The typical house in Bernal is three bedrooms with two bathrooms at about 1,600 sqft.
What are some tips for first-time homebuyers in Bernal Heights?
Single-family homes tend to hold their value better than condos or TICs. They’re the last to correct in a dip and the first to improve in a recovery. Good views add about 10% to the price of the home vs. a comparable property. The North and West Slopes and Cortland corridors are typically the highest-priced parts of Bernal because of their phenomenal views and walkability. In contrast, the Alemany and East sides and the College Hill areas are often the most affordable. Some of the most expensive homes in Bernal are around Holly Park, so don’t necessarily look for bargains over there.
How long does it typically take to sell a property in Bernal Heights?
Most homes in Bernal sell in two to three weeks.
What expectations do you have for SF Real Estate for the coming year or so?
I expect 2023 to be a year of fits and starts. There has been a significant amount of pent-up demand since June 2022, when interest rates started rapidly increasing due to the massive influx of millennials reaching the age when home buying peaks (the mid to late 30s) typically. However, to get inflation under control, the federal reserve has to engineer a recession, which will increase unemployment and decrease consumer confidence. In addition, if buyers don’t have jobs, they can’t get loans. As the recession runs its course, which could take 6-12 months or more, we anticipate buyers and sellers will find pockets of opportunity to make their move. Still, we don’t anticipate another run-up in housing prices until we end the recession.
What sets Level Up Group apart from other realtors in the Bernal Heights area?
We are good people helping our neighbors make the most of their most attractive investments – their homes. We are blessed with many great agents in Bernal Heights – many of whom have asked me to help them sell their homes. To be the Realtor that other Realtors trust is a huge compliment and a vote of confidence. It speaks to our integrity, professionalism, and expertise to help clients navigate any situation and market.